Tuesday, June 06, 2006

One hundred million new computers

My first ever post on this blog was about the "$100 laptop".

In case you missed it, there's a project out there that plans on producing a really really cheap laptop, and selling it in massive quantities to developing countries so that each school age child has one (hence the project name: "One Laptop Per Child").

That project has been progressing (there are some more concept shots, and even pictures of actual hardware, now) and I've seen some stories about how Intel and Microsoft are pissed off at the project for using AMD processors and Linux software -- in this story the project leader said:
"AMD is our partner, which means Intel is pissing on me. Bill Gates is not pleased either, but if I am annoying Microsoft and Intel then I figure I am doing something right."
Apparently Microsoft even offered to let the project use Windows on the laptops for nothing (and it was rumoured that Microsoft would even PAY to have Windows on these machines).

Up until today, I couldn't work out why Microsoft would care so much. I mean, the quantities are enormous (the project is talking about 100 million laptops), but selling something for $0 means you make a total of $0, even on 100 million units.

Then today I finally realised. These are all new computers.

I mean, they're new computers not just in the sense that they're fresh from the factory; they're new in the sense that they are not replacing old computers.

I figure at least 95% of computers sold are replacing old computers. Imagine a guy with a computer running Windows. He buys a new computer with Windows. That theoretically makes two computers running Windows, but really, there's still just one person using Windows.

On the other hand, 100 million new users, who previously didn't have a computer at all, using Linux. That's a huge change in the landscape -- I can see why Microsoft are so anxious.

Apache, Firefox, OpenOffice, Linux.. I wonder if, in Microsoft's head office, those words are starting to sound like marching feet?

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